“It is very difficult to study history-in-the making, but what is occurring right now is the most powerful influence on the economy, the consumer and brand marketing since the Industrial Revolution. We are witnessing The Great Marketing Revolution. Our job is to be aware of it, its pattern and its destination so we can take sure, methodical steps to capitalize on it”
William T. Moran, 1956
[You don’t have to read this. It is an edited and slightly improved version of an older and longer post, written for the 50th anniversary edition of Admap. I reproduce it here only in so much as this place is also my notebook. The anniversary edition of Admap by contrast, IS very much worth reading in its entirety]
Has everything changed? Have all the old lessons and practices been rendered obsolete? Is marketing as we knew it really dead? And is it possible to move beyond rhetoric and ground the necessary speculation in at least a semblance of empirical evidence?
Yes… and no.
But let’s start with a simple framework for enquiry, something that gives us a starting point for thinking about how brands are built.
The levers of growth
It’s over a decade old, but that provided by the marketing consultant and former adman William Moran – a version of the 4Ps model – gives us a framework for evaluating marketing’s outputs, and for thinking about how marketing has changed, is changing, and must change.
For Moran the two fundamental processes which can produce change in sales, are a change in perceived Value and a change in Presence.
Change in Value he argued, can come about from a change in perceived utilities (attributes), and a change in relative price.
Presence Moran regards as “the lubricator which simply facilitates sales by reducing the mental friction in the consumer’s decision-making process.”
Moran distinguished between physical presence (being visible and easily buyable) and mental presence (being easily thought of).
Thanks to the the work of Les Binet, Peter Field, and the IPA we can identify some vital multiplying factors, namely time, investment and creativity.
We know that advertising’s ability to create value is most keenly felt in the long-term. Time, in other words is vital to success.
We know that the most profitable campaigns are those that drive both volume and pricing.
We know that campaigns require time for their effects to be felt, for while volume increases are relatively easy to achieve in the short-term, price increases take longer.
And we know that longer-term goals such as share growth or reduction of price sensitivity demand sustained brand building.
The creation of memory, brands, and sustainable business growth in other words takes time. And as such it is, like it or not, at odds with one of the defining characteristics of our age – immediacy.
This is not to deny the value of brands being responsive in the here and now.
Nor is this to suggest that short-term activity is without value. As Binet and Field note, the data suggests that the optimum balance of long-term brand building and short-term activation expenditure is on average around 60:40.
But simply delivering short-term activity does not lead to success in the long term, and long-term effects are not simply an accumulation of short-term effects. They are different kinds of effects.
Coupled with time, investment levels are a vital multiplying factor.
We know that the critical metric that determines the level of a brand’s market share growth is the degree to which its share of voice exceeds its market share (excess share of voice, or ESOV).
We know that an average of 0.5% points of share growth can be expected per 10% points of ESOV.
We also know of course that new, ‘earned’ methods of distribution marketing content have allowed marketers to extract new efficiencies.
But there is little evidence to suggest that the paid media investment and business results have been completely and irrevocably decoupled.
As Binet and Field conclude: “It is often asserted that share of voice is irrelevant in the digital era: this is not true. The correlation of SOV with market share growth is getting stronger and the returns on investing in SOV are also increasing as the level of brand choice continues to grow and the internet becomes more crowded with commercial activity.”
So to some degree, market share can be bought. However, we know that the unfair advantage that any marketer can choose to leverage is the power of creativity.
We know this from the IPA’s analysis of the 257 IPA Effectiveness cases studies for which Gunn Report scores were all available.
Creatively-awarded campaigns generate on average 5.7 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV, compared with just 0.5 points of share growth for non-awarded campaigns.
So if the levers of brand building have been utility, price, and presence, and their multipliers have been time, investment, and creativity, where do we find ourselves today, in this, our digital age?
New forms of utility
We are seeing the malleability of software allowing for marketers to evolve, iterate and improve the product experience in response to consumer interactions in the real world, not the laboratory.
In some markets we are seeing the emergence of new models of product ownership, in which access to goods and services is rented, rather than outright ownership of goods given over to consumers.
The access, interactivity and immediacy that technology now affords us means we are able to directly involve consumers in the creation, iteration, and indeed running, of products and services.
We are seeing utility being used as a vehicle for publicity and promotion. Whereas product development and publicity occupied very distinct silos, marketing is now being “baked into” products and services.
Of course more intangible utility has not gone away. We all live and work – skilfully and effortlessly – within two worlds; the world of objects and the world of meanings. And we need this imagined world to give our identities, lives and experiences depth, significance and meaning.
But we are also are seeing new forms of utility. We are seeing new business models, new businesses, and new brands. And we are seeing product functionality being used to build and sustain the meaning and emotional component of brands.
So perhaps this new world of utility is teaching us marketing to value the sausage as much as the sizzle. And in as much as what people really need from marketers is not communications, but better products and services, it suggests that far from being ‘dead’, marketing’s original mission is very much alive and well.
New avenues of availability
Sharp, like Moran, has rightly underscored the importance of physical availability: “Being easy to notice and buy is essential, because buyers do not have strong preferences even for the brands they are loyal to.”
There was a time of course when physical shelf space and availability was the crucial factor in the quest to make brands easy to buy.
Today we are seeing digital availability being used to enhance physical availability, and we are seeing digital availability being used to replace or bypass physical availability.
We are seeing brands responding to and anticipating people’s need or interest.
We are seeing brands connect directly with customers, rather than via third parties.
We are seeing brands exploiting the interconnectedness of all things digital to create shelf space and make it easy for people to buy.
We are an explosion in the ways in which brands can create memory and meaning. Creativity is now properly unbounded, no longer constrained by media formats.
We are of course, able to give consumers the opportunity to interact in all manner of ways from the undemanding and lightweight to the participative and immersive.
We are seeing brands customize their content for different consumer segments.
We are certainly seeing brands relentlessly stalk consumers as they travel across the internet
We are able to employ consumers as advocates, ambassadors, co-creators, publicists, and media channels.
And increasingly, we are able to customize the content, timing, and targeting of our content.
New models of pricing
The economics of digital goods are allowing brands to offer consumers goods and services for free. As Chris Anderson first wrote in Wired magazine: “It’s now clear that practically everything Web technology touches starts down the path to gratis, at least as far as we consumers are concerned.”
We’re seeing brands able to employ the minority of paying users to support the majority of non-paying users, because the cost of serving that majority is close enough to zero to call it nothing.
We’re seeing brands employ ‘freemium’ pricing models in which they offer free version of their product or service as a vehicle for recruiting users, and charging for advanced features, functionality, virtual goods, or an ad-free experience.
We’re seeing some brands test dynamic pricing.
Mobile technology has of course liberated consumers from having their choice limited by what’s in front of them on shelf. Consumers are now able to treat physical stories as showrooms in which they search for a cheaper option online.
Back to the future
Even a cursory survey such as this brings home the scope depth, and velocity of change we are surrounded by. These are indeed exhilarating times. But viewed through the lens of Moran’s simple model, they remind us of two essential things.
First, the fundamental brand building mechanics of value and presence, the subprocesses of utility, pricing, and the creation of physical and mental presence – together with the necessity of time, investment, and creativity – have not evaporated. Marketers struggling to keep up with and make sense of the blizzard of change, evolution, disruption, advice (good, self-serving, and idiotic) and opinion need not despair. Look beneath the veneer of rhetoric, and one sees that the old imperatives still hold true.
But this is not an excuse for complacency. While the fundamental outputs of marketing have not been rendered obsolete, how marketers deliver value and presence is most certainly being reworked.
Connectivity, interactivity, immediacy, sociability, transparency, collaboration, prediction, responsiveness, targeting, automation, disintermediation, customization, mobility… all of these phenomenon (and more) are fundamentally remaking how brands connect with consumers. Though our choice of how is, of course, always contingent. On the nature of the task, the competition, the audience, and the brand.
There is then, as much to unlearn as there is to relearn. And as technology and code continue to remake our lives, there are inevitably, new abilities to acquire and add to the old ones. For both the individual, and the corporation.
But lest we take too much comfort from this, Moran’s model also provides us with another vital reminder. One might even call it a wakeup call. Namely that marketing is not, and has never been, synonymous with advertising. Its remit and output is far broader and more far-reaching than merely the development of communications.
So when publicity can be baked into the product, product design can be a means of meaning manufacture, distribution can be baked into the product, physical products are assuming a digital life, social channels are becoming means of delivering customer services, pricing models are being used as distribution mechanics, marketing content is no longer a dead end and is becoming just the beginning of a customer journey, the gap between publicity and purchase can be compressed, the consumer is a distribution channel, and the consumer can no longer be held at arm’s length, it really is time to let go of the antiquated (and ill-founded) notion that marketing is synonymous with ‘messaging’.
And it is high time that we blow up the mental and organisational silos that still bedevil us – story versus code, advertising versus product, utility versus image, etc.
Perhaps if we all thought of ourselves in the business of creating connections - in the mind, between people, companies and brands, and between people and other people – then we’d find ourselves better adapted to the new environments and possibilities of our age.
In an age defined by its connectedness – people to people, people to things, and things to other things – that seems a far more accurate and useful perspective on what we all do.
“Only connect”, as E.M. Forster wrote.
All of what follows should should be nothing more than a truism, known to all marketers: That human decision making is far from rational. It’s been argued, elaborated upon and more rigorously examined by other, far more expert minds.
But there is enough infrastructure, paraphenalia, received wisdom and plain old bad practice to suggest that we need to keep revisiting it.
Homo sapiens 1.0
Whatever Plato and Descartes might have told us – and whatever some marketers might tell themselves – we are at our core, driven not by reason and choice, but by far more ancient, intuitive, and often irrational emotions, impulses and instincts.
Reason and consciousness are but a thin veneer on top of the much older hardwiring and workings of the mind. For all the wonders, sophistication and advances of our modern age, we are still very much homo sapiens 1.0, driven by age old hungers, drives and responses.
Of course the world has changed radically since our mental foundations were laid, and the complexities of modernity work to both exacerbate and frustrate these impulses. And it is in this coming together of the ancient and the modern that the opportunity to overcome indifference lies.
It is perhaps the curse and thrill of every age to believe that we are living through unprecedented change. And we today are no different, seemingly surrounded by change on ever side, both ephemeral and significant. But our story of how to survive and prosper amidst our age’s wonders and complexities begins with what has not changed.
The belief that any one thing (like the internet) or phenomenon will Change Everything Forever encourages us to focus on the superficial surface of things, which do of course change all the time. Yet as the psychologist Nicholas Humphrey reminds us:
Cultural and technical innovations can certainly alter the trajectory of individual human lives. But, while human beings continue to reproduce by having sex and each new generation goes back to square one, then every baby begins life with a set of inherited dispositions and instincts that evolved in the technological dark ages… Let’s dream, if we like, of revolution. But be prepared for more of the same.”
The surface trappings of life and culture may have changed, yet the choices, predicaments and motivations of the characters of Homer, Shakespeare, Tolstoy, Austen, Dickens are as vividly meaningful and recognizable as they were when audiences first encountered them. The stuff of story, myth, and human biography – love, sex, sacrifice, war, politics, redemption, jealousy, ambition, heartbreak, altruism, heroism – is enduring and universal. As Edward Wilson – one of the world’s most preeminent biologists and naturalists – puts it:
We have created a Star wars civilization, with stone age emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology.”
When it comes to understanding those stone age emotions, it is perhaps fair to say that we know next to nothing about how the mind works. This should probably not surprise us. There are after all, 100 trillion constantly changing connections in the brain – more than there are atoms in the entire universe.
In contemplating the mysteries, complexities and marvels of the brain, the psychologist Steven Pinker cites Emily Dickinson’s poem ‘The brain is wider than the sky’:
In its staggering complexity, its explosive combinatorial computation, and its limitless ability to imagine real and hypothetical worlds, the brain, truly, is wider than the sky. The poem itself proves it. Simply to understand the comparison in each verse, the brain of the reader must contain the sky and absorb the sea and visualize each one at the same scale as the brain itself.”
Anybody who claims to have conclusively worked out how the human brain works is either deluded, or a charlatan. Or both.
That said, neuroscience and psychology have begun to open up a small window on what interests and moves us. And what this reveals is that while we have undoubtedly come a long way as a species, we are still very much homo sapiens version 1.0.
A tale of two systems
The notion of ‘evolution’ suggests a process of wholesale change and transformation. In our case from animals, to sophisticated creatures of consciousness and reason. But the story of the the human brain’s development is less one of transformation and more one of accretion, addition, and enhancement.
As a result, the brain is a patchwork of different circuits and structures built upon our original brain. And this is the key point. Our primitive brain and its workings has not disappeared. It still continues to act as the home of our unaware, emotional and intuitive thought processes. Wilson puts it thus:
The more we learn about our physical existence, the more apparent it becomes that even the most complex forms of human behaviour are ultimately biological. They display the specializations evolved across millions of years by our primate ancestors. the indelible stamp of evolution is clear in the idiosyncratic manner in which humanity’s sensory channels narrow our unaided perception of reality. It is confirmed in the way hereditarily prepared and counter-prepared programs guide the development of the mind.”
The older and the newer parts of the brain are enmeshed and wired together. So rather than function as an entirely separate process, what we characterize as ‘reason’ is fundamentally dependent on these more basic and older processes. The implications are significant. For despite all the accomplishments of civilization, our powers of reason are but a thin veneer on top of something much more primitive and instinctive.
The work of the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman for example, has shown how we are capable of two modes of thought, and how our responses and decisions are shaped by the interplay between what he characterizes as ‘System 1’ and the newer ‘System 2’.
System 1 is always on, constantly originating impressions, intuitions, and feelings in response to the outside world’s stimuli for System 2. And as Kahneman’s work has shown, System 1 does not provide us with a clear and objective view of the world, but rather works to edit, filter and interpret it. It actively works to create a coherent pattern of ideas in the memory, enjoys illusions of truth, infers and invents causes and intentions, is biased to believe and confirm, exaggerates consistency, and is more sensitive to changes than to states.
We’ve long been accustomed to think of reason and emotion as being in conflict with one another. Plato started it, characterizing the mind as a chariot pulled by two horses – one well-bred the other obstinate – with the rational brain acting as charioteer, holding the reins and keeping the horses in check and on course. And later we had Freud arguing that the mind was locked in perpetual conflict between the primitive id and the conscious and reasoning ego. And of course the popular notion of a brain ‘divided’ into separately functioning left and right sides endures still in our collective consciousness.
But the truth is that our older mental systems and processes work with the newer ones.
As Kahneman, argues, System 1 provides System 2 with the raw material. And in contrast to System’s 1‘s constant activity, System 2 is fundamentally lazy. Most of the time, it adopts the suggestions of System 1 with little or no modification, turning impressions into explicit beliefs and impulses into deliberate and voluntary actions.
Navigating our way past indifference
It was heresy when he first wrote it, but the neuroscientists and psychologists of today are demonstrating quite how prescient the eighteenth century philosopher David Hume was when he declared, “Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions, and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them.”
What Edmund Wilson calls “the indelible stamp of our animal ancestry” is inescapable – “we are an evolutionary chimera, living on intelligence steered by the demands of animal instinct.” It is impossible for us to escape the inheritance of our genetic and cultural evolution. As Wilson notes, “they shape the way we perceive the world, “the options we open to ourselves, and the responses we find easiest and most rewarding to make.”
So if we want to create demand for our work and overcome the hurdle of indifference, then it is our older nature and selves we must connect with.
Push strategies that rely on brute force can and do work. But creating a pull effect is significantly more efficient. You get a far bigger effect in return for the same amount of effort.
Creating that pull effect – overcoming people’s indifference and creating content that people find interesting, relevant, compelling irresistible, fascinating – demands we connect with System 1 for it is this mental system that interprets and makes sense of the the world.
In other words if we want to involve people in what we create, then we must arouse, interest, and connect with our older brain and more ancient instincts. If you want to move people’s behaviors, you have to emotionally move them. As Dan Wieden put it in an interview, “Just move me, dude.”
(We should distinguish here between stimulus and response. For it is emotional responses that we should be seeking. And there are all manner of ways in which we can evoke that. That might be a well-timed relevant piece of rational information. It might be a brilliantly delivered piece of customer service. And yes, it might be a piece of emotive storytelling).
We can ignore this truth about human nature at our peril. In his analysis of why the Democrats consistently failed to achieve electoral success, the psychologist and political strategist Drew Westen has argued that the root cause of the party’s failure was its insistence on treating the electorate and voting behaviour as being driven by reason and analysis. Consequently according to Westen – and in sharp contrast to what the Republican party had long instinctively grasped – the Democrats inundated voters with the complexities of policy detail, rather than framing them in the context of an emotionally compelling, intuitively appealing narrative.
Westen’s advice for politicians and political strategists is that if you want to influence voting behavior then the key lies in activating the older, emotional brain:
You can slog it out for those few millimeters of cerebral turf that processes facts, figures, and policy statements. Or you can take your campaign to the broader neural electorate, collecting delegates throughout the brain and targeting different emotional states.”
Similarly, the advertising veterans Paul Feldwick and Robert Heath have urged advertisers to let go of the belief that advertising works as a rational communication vehicle. It’s time they argue that advertising professionals recognize that most advertising simply does not work through planting rational messages in people’s memories. Instead, it works to create networks of associations in the brain through visuals, sounds, symbols, music, gestures, context and a host of other things that are too often simply treated as a means of gaining attention or ‘recall’.
While many in marketing- and adland still seem to struggle to accommodate themselves to this truth, the fact of the matter is that people do not rationally process advertising. Advertising, as Feldwick and Heath argue, works through activating the emotional (and usually subconscious) processes of the brain. As they put it, this perspective offers “a more plausible explanation of how 30 seconds of apparent nonsense, watched through half-closed eyes, can affect brand preference and buying behaviour, than the old idea of the ‘selling proposition’.”
Indeed the complexities of our modern age make connecting with our older selves all the more pressing for cultural producers. For the fact that we operate with 1.0 brains in a 3.0 (ever more post-industrial) world inevitably results in tensions, hungers, needs and desires. The rolling back of tradition, the relentless expansion of urbanization, the central place of celebrity in popular culture, the liberation of individual choices, the acceleration of culture, the cataclysms of the last century and the complexities of the current… All of these characteristics of our modern age can both exacerbate our ancient and deep-seated appetites, drives, and impulses as well as frustrate and challenge them.
And where there is a tension, there too lies the possibility of people being not indifferent but actually interested.
It is commonplace to make the distinction between artistic and commercial endeavors. The poet versus the salesman. The painter versus the ad man. Meaning versus entertainment. The gallery versus the shopping mall. The muse versus the market. Commerce versus art. Objectivity versus subjectivity. But these are false distinctions. For as cultural participants – as meaning creators, and weavers of magic – both the artist and the salesman must seek to overcome the challenge of indifference.
And whether our cultural agendas are commercial or artistic in nature, success – creating pull rather than relying on push – lies in finding and understanding the tension between modernity and this older yet enduring version of our selves. For amidst the complexities and paradoxes born of the intersection and struggle between our ancient selves and our modern lives emerges a timeless and indeed inescapable story about who we really are and what we really need, want, and desire.
The science writer Stephen Pinker has made the plea that we see ourselves for what we truly are. Not as products of culture and nurture. Not even as the product of the interplay between nature and culture. But rather, that we see through to our real, fundamental, and universal human nature. Not least of all because it’s a perspective that emphasizes as he puts it, “the psychological unity of our species beneath the superficial differences of physical appearance and parochial culture.”
And if we want to connect with and move people (and however we choose to do that) if we wish to enthrall them, captivate them, seduce them, and yes, move them, then so too must we grasp and embrace our true nature.
Robert Heath and Paul Feldwick, ‘Fifty years using the wrong model of advertising’, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 50, No. 1, 2008
Nicholas Humphrey, Edge World Question Center, http://www.edge.org/q2009/q09_3.html
David Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature (188.8.131.52)
Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Stephen Pinker, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial Of Human Nature
John Ratey, A User’s Guide To The Brain: Perception, Attention, And The Four Theaters Of The Brain
Drew Westen, The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion In Deciding The Fate Of The Nation
Edward O. Wilson, The Social Conquest Of The World
If there is one thing guaranteed to relegate a marketing to both ineffectiveness and obsolescence, it is the belief that its primary form of influencing consumer behaviour is through messaging.
Messaging doesn’t reflect how people consume advertising and make sense of brands.
We know that the brain is not some rigid filing system in which memories reside as fully formed recordings. It is something altogether more dynamic and malleable.
Indeed it’s more accurate to think of memory as a process, not a thing. Our brain’s networks of nerve cells or ‘neurons’ are not fixed entities, but rather, are dynamic and continuously modified by experience. What people experience results in new connections in the structure of our brains.
While parts of marketingland still believe we’re in business of transmitting of information, of ‘communicating’ abstract, intellectual ‘messages’ or propositions, advertising doesn’t work through filing verbal messages and propositions in people’s mental filing systems.
Memory actually works through the creation of connections. A brand is simply a set of connections and associations in the brain. We form and access memories of brands by creating and activating these networks of associations.
So people don’t consume and file away abstract ideas and propositions. They consume (as Robert Heath has shown, they often with fairly low levels of attention) all the visual, verbal, audible, tangible characteristics of our content – and these create new connections and in the brain.
Judith Williamson in her wonderful, essential, hostile and demanding book Decoding Advertising: Ideology and Meaning In Advertising demonstrates how advertising’s real work lies in its aesthetic wholes, and how it operates larges silently, through its codes and signals, rather than messages:
What an advertisement ‘says’ is merely what it claims to say; it is part of the deceptive mythology of advertising to believe that an advertisement is simply a transparent vehicle for a ‘message’ behind it. Certainly a large part of any advertisement is this ‘message’: we are told something about a product, and asked to buy it. the information we are given is frequently untrue, and even when it is true, we are often being persuaded to buy products which are unnecessary… a criticism of advertising on these grounds is valid, and I would support it. However such a criticism is in many ways the greatest obstacle of all to a true understanding of the role of advertisements in our society, because it is based on the assumption that ads are merely the invisible conveyors of certain undesirable messages, and only sees meaning in the overt ‘content’ of the ad rather than it its ‘form’ – in other words, ignoring the ‘content’ of the ‘form’.”
So the consumption and decoding of marketing content is something altogether fuzzier than we often allow for. As Stephen King in JWT’s Planning Guide noted back in 1974:
An advertisement as a stimulus is a combination of medium, words, pictures, movements, symbols, associations, tones of voice, etc. The stimulus is received as a totality; the receiver does not separate content and form. The individual elements of an advertisement have no meaning on their own. They can only be judged in combination.”
Feldwick has similarly done much to remind us that advertising, like art does not work through reductionist concepts, but through the experience of aesthetic wholes.
So the What and How are inseparable. We exercise brand impressionism – rather than ‘taking out messages’, we are left with general impressions from what we’re exposed to.
Treating creativity merely as a means of tricking or bribing the viewer into paying attention to the message within it profoundly undervalues and undermines the both the nature and the value of creativity.
Creativity isn’t some kind of distraction tactic, bait or bribe. It isn’t a wrapper or envelope for a message.
It IS the content.
But there is another pressing issue with the idea of messaging.
For aside from the fact that the marketing-as-message model of influencing consumer behaviour doesn’t reflect how people consume communications, it’s singularly ill-suited to adapting itself to people’s digital interactions.
Searching, browsing, searching, tagging, uploading, downloading, sharing, linking, commenting, buying, playing, liking… To varying degrees of involvement and intensity, these are behaviors.
And messaging in an environment characterized by behaviours obviously struggles.
It either gatecrashes, misses out on vast opportunity, or is simply rendered impotent.
Small wonder then, that those charged with creating and leveraging digital behaviors should regard those who believe they are in the business of issuing messages with such bafflement or suspicion. And indeed vice versa.
The messaging school of marketing misunderstands the human mind, misunderstands the nature of creativity, and opens up a deeply unhelpful schism.
It really is time to let get out of the message business.
We need, to borrow the words of Jaron Lanier, a palette cleansing, a broadening of horizons.
Perhaps if we all thought of ourselves in the business of creating connections, then we’d find ourselves better adapted to the new environments and possibilities of our age.
And perhaps we’d begin to see how absurd are the solios that we’ve insisted on operating in.
For if we we wish to be effective, we are about creating connections.
Connections in the mind.
Connections between people, companies and brands.
And connections between people and other people.
In an age defined by its relentlessly blooming connectedness – people to people, people to things, and things to other things – that seems a far more accurate and useful perspective on what we all do.
“Only connect”, as E.M. Forster wrote.
(A familiar theme revisited. One more time).
The world is a difficult and sometimes hostile place for ideas. It always has been and probably always will. New ideas have always have a hard time seeing the light of day, let alone finding an audience. Whatever field one looks to – art, design, cinema, architecture, engineering, science, and so on, great ideas still go undervalued.
Too many good ideas get killed or rejected, too many are overlooked. Too many of those of us who hold the purse strings, who own the venues of performance and publicity, who manage the channels of dissemination, who exercise the levers of influence, find courage and conviction abandoning us.
But as technology reduces the cost of both production and distribution it’s harder than ever for cultural content to find an audience. For we are awash with plenitude. We are living in an age of cultural oversupply. Pick any category of human production. From breakfast cereals to cute cat videos on YouTube, from erotic fiction for middle aged women to trendy sneakers, from organic restaurants to action movies, from high culture to low culture, there is more choice and variety than we need. Than we can possibly consume.
And with that plenitude, we are also let’s face it, oversupplied with crap. Crap books, crap films, crap restaurants…
Perhaps this is not surprising at all. Perhaps cultural production simply conforms to what the American science fiction writer Theodore Sturgeon termed ‘Sturgeons Revelation’ (or Sturgeon’s Law as if is often referred to).
As he put it in in the March 1958 issue of Venture magazine:
I repeat Sturgeon’s Revelation, which was wrung out of me after twenty years of wearying defense of science fiction against attacks of people who used the worst examples of the field for ammunition, and whose conclusion was that ninety percent of SF is crud. Using the same standards that categorize 90% of science fiction as trash, crud, or crap, it can be argued that 90% of film, literature, consumer goods, etc. are crap. In other words, the claim (or fact) that 90% of science fiction is crap is ultimately uninformative, because science fiction conforms to the same trends of quality as all other artforms.”
Plenitude such as this erodes value. And more. As behavioral economists teach us, we are inclined to pay greater attention to and a greater value upon that which is scarce. Amidst our oversupply of both the good and the bad then, we’re not merely battling for people’s attention, but against their indifference.
And indifference is indeed a fearsome obstacle – as the fantasy writer Joan Vinge has written:
Indifference is the strongest force in the universe. It makes everything meaningless. Love and hate don’t stand a chance against it.”
The Holocaust survivor and Nobel Laureate Eli Wiesel has written and spoken much on the subject of indifference and why it is so powerful. In a speech at the White House in 1999 speech, he said:
Indifference elicits no response. Indifference is not a response. Indifference is not a beginning, it is an end.”
Whether we are artists or salesman, we can buy or rent exposure. The battle as intelligent advertisers long ago woke up to, is not mere exposure. But for people’s hearts and minds. For people actually giving a damn.
There is good evidence for this from the IPA.
The IPA 2009 report’s ‘How Share Of Voice Wins Market Share: New Findings From Nielsen And The IPA Databank’ notes that: “The critical metric that determines the level of a brand’s market share growth is its excess share of voice (ESOV), defined as share of voice (SOV) minus share of market (SOM).”
To to some degree, market share can be bought. However, the unfair advantage that any marketer can choose to leverage is the power of creativity.
In its report ‘The Link Between Creativity And Effectiveness’ – again based upon the DataBank data – the IPA provides an analysis of the relationship between creatively-awarded work and effectiveness.
The sample used for this study were the 257 IPA Effectiveness cases studies for which Gunn Report scores were all available.
As an aside, given that 257 represents less than 1% of UK advertisers, and around 1 in 7000 pick up the minimum major creative awards needed to be recorded in the Gunn Report each year, the fact that no fewer than 46 (18%) of the sample of IPA campaigns appear in the Gunn Report database already suggests that there is some kind of relationship between creativity and effectiveness.
Obviously this isn’t proof and so this study examined whether this 18% of creatively-awarded campaigns outperformed the 82% of non-awarded campaigns in hard business terms.
The short answer, is yes.
The IPA’s analysis reveals that that non-awarded campaigns, on average generate 0.5 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV.
In sharp contrast, creatively-awarded campaigns generate on average 5.7 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV.
In other words creatively-awarded campaigns generate around 11 times (that’s right, 11 times) more share growth per 10 points of ESOV than creatively-non-awarded campaigns.
But while we can rent eyeballs, we cannot buy people’s people’s minds. Their interest, enthusiasm or affection.
Sven Birkets, the author and director of the writing seminars at Bennington College in Vermont and editor of the literary journal AGNI, ponders the words of the French philosopher Simone Weil, who said: ‘Absolutely unmixed attention is prayer’, reminding us that ‘to attend’, etymologically, is to ‘stretch toward’, to seek with one’s mind and senses:
Paying attention is striving toward, thus presupposing a prior wanting, an expectation. We look at a work of art and hope to meet it with our looking; we already have a notion of something to be had, gotten.”
As for prayer, notes Birkets:
It is… an expression of helplessness, a putting of oneself before a superior force… However the action is defined, it involves a wanting or needing.”
And so for Birkets attention is not a neutral focus of awareness on some object or event:
[it is] A question looking for an answer. There is a big difference between our attempting to pay attention to something and having our attention captured – arrested – by something.”
Like Birkets, this – the capture and arrest of attention – is what interests me.
Between us and success and the capture of attention then, will always lie the potential for people to be indifferent towards what we have made and put out into the world. And the existence of an audience largely indifferent to our efforts and outputs should send a chill down the collective spine of the industries of cultural production.
So how can we make our idea, talent, pitch, or product matter in a crowded marketplace, on a crowded planet? How can we seduce and enthrall? How can we go beyond mere exposure and attention and create real fascination? How can we create demand, rather than have to force our efforts upon people?
The algorithms that weave their way through our lives today help can filter and edit our searches, prioritizing the inevitable deluge of results. They might enable us to wait for consumers to notify the market of their intent to buy, rather than us only relying on pushing stuff out to people regardless of whether they want it or not.
But whatever changes they are wreaking, they have done nothing to render obsolete the old art and magic of entrancing and bewitching.
Sven Birkets, ‘The Art of Attention’, aeon magazine
Joan Vinge, The Snow Queen
Culture moves at the speed of our machines
It took a full seventeen days for news of Nelson’s victory in 1805 at the Battle of Trafalgar to reach London. The news had travelled at 2.7mph.
News of the 1891 Nobi Earthquake in Japan travelled at 246mph, taking one day to reach London.
And in 2008 it took just one minute for news of the Sichuan earthquake to reach – London, travelling at 204,000mph.
The Wright brothers’ first flight in 1903 reached 6.82mph.
Less than ten years later the Air Speed record had risen to 68.171mph with Alfred Leblanc’s flight.
By 1948 the record had reached 670mph.
Eleven years later the record stood at 2,193.2mph.
Aldous Huxley might have been right in his claim that speed really is the only pleasure invented by modernity.
Indeed the evidence is everywhere that the metabolism of our culture has shifted fundamentally.
We consume, discard and move on faster than ever before. More passes through our eyes, hands, ears, mouths, stomachs, and minds at a faster rate than ever before.
A river of novelty and sensation runs through our culture and through us as individuals.
And everywhere we look, we can find evidence of that speed and immediacy is not merely a phenomenon of our modern times, but has become an everyday expectation. We inhabit a culture that increasingly expects swift delivery and instant gratification.
Thus we have instant home loans. Instant tans. Instant messaging. Instant coffee. Instant approvals. Instant downloads. Instant replays. Instant results.
When the doors don’t close quickly enough, or it doesn’t arrive faster enough, we punch impatiently at the elevator button. We sound our horns as soon as the traffic light turns from red to green. We harrumph with exasperation when our transatlantic flight’s departure is delayed by twenty minutes. We drum our fingers on the counter while our allegedly ‘fast’ food is being prepared.
We’ve come to expect things so quickly that we can’t wait more than a few seconds for a video to load. Krishnan and Sitaraman’s analysis of the impact of video stream quality on viewer behavior reveals that viewers start to abandon a video if it takes more than 2 seconds to start up, with each incremental delay of 1 second resulting in a 5.8% increase in the abandonment rate. This means that after five seconds, the abandonment rate is 25%. And after 10 seconds, half are gone.
The decline in Americans’ personal personal saving rates — the percentage of disposable income save – has been much documented and commented upon. Back in December 1982, American’s saved 9.7%. By December 2012 it had declined to 3.6%. A whole gamut of reasons have been suggested for the decline, but one must wonder whether our growing focus on immediacy has also played a role.
Even the lag between buying online and waiting for delivery is demolished. As the author and cultural commentator Douglas Rushkoff has noted, the new incarnations of consumer goods and services “are successively less tangible, reducing the friction associated with purchasing, using, and disposing of real objects… As if coming full circle to the era of lords and vassals, we no longer own the land at all but simply pay for the right to use it”.
And of course in Facebook, Twitter, e-mail, SMS, we have our own, personal infrastructure of delivery and immediacy, our own always on, instant news channels that enable us to distribute and consume content, whether it’s home-made, bought, borrowed, or stolen.
Surveying this, our culture of immediacy, the sociologist Professor John Tomlinson argues that we are witnessing the closing of “certain separations that have historically defined the terms of human culture…”
And indeed wherever we look, delay and distance is being squeezed out of our culture and lives. We are witnessing the closing of the gap between the departure and arrival of anything. Between ignorance and knowledge. Between knowledge and experience. Between wanting and acquiring. Between acquiring and consuming.
As the gaps become compressed, so too does the gap between the past and the future. As if inhabiting some kind of rolling CNN news story, in a culture of immediacy we increasingly find ourselves living in one long, continuous present-tense. One, long Right Now.
Of course this culture offers us thrills, satisfactions, gratifications, pleasures, benefits, and advantages aplenty. And it isn’t just the ephemeral, the disposable, and the inconsequential that fills so much of consumer culture that has become accelerated. After all, we can can get informed and smarter faster. And we can deliver life-saving medicines faster.
But while there is much good to be had, and much to be thankful for in this, our culture of immediacy, the mechanics of effective branding run counter to the drift of culture.
For while our culture’s metabolism has accelerated, the means by which sustainable growth is created has not.
Sustainable memory-building takes time
To be found, considered, chosen, bought and consumed, brands rely on the creation of memory structures.
William Moran characterized this as the creation of ‘mental presence’ – what some refer to as ‘salience’ or ‘mental availability’.
Definitions of what exactly this constitutes abound, but Moran’s is pithily useful: “The degree to which a given brand comes to consumers’ minds in the context of a particular purchase occasion or consumption occasion.”
Clearly this is more than just top of mind awareness. To “come to mind” in purchase or consumption situations demands both quantity and quality of brand memories.
Quantity refers to the number of associations a buyer has about a brand, while quality refers to both the strength of the association and the relevance of that memory to the buying or consumption situation.
Of course what we call memories are connections between neurons. The more connections there are, the more memories there are. And the stronger the connection, the stronger the memory.
To create strong connections between neurons requires repetition. Robert Heath has characterized the process as one of repeatedly walking a path in the grass. Every journey we take on it makes the path more visible, more enduring.
In other words it takes time.
Thus, Coca-Cola is imbued the world over with associations of happiness because for 125 years it has one way or another talked about, celebrated and brought to life one thing.
There is another dimension to the act of repetition that we cannot ignore,
Professor Daniel Kahnemann’s work has shown how repetition makes things true. As he puts it “A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.”
The impatient marketer might look for ‘reasons to believe’, but psychology teaches us that saying a thing – repeatedly – makes it so.
Sustainable business growth takes time
And if creating enduing memory takes time, so too do the business effects of advertising.
In The Long And The Short Of It: Balancing Short- And Long-Term Marketing Strategies, Les Binet and Peter Field report on their of analysis of the IPA Effectiveness Databank. The data held therein is the product of 30 years of the IPA effectiveness Awards – numbering some 996 campaigns, for 700 brands in over 80 categories.
Their analysis makes it clear that (contrast to our culture of immediacy) advertising’s ability to create value is most keenly felt in the long-term:
The total number of business effects rises steadily as the campaign length increases… This is largely as one would expect: the longer a campaign runs, the more investment has been put behind it and the more time it has to generate effects.
This picture is replicated with the profit metric, though with a notably greater increase between 1 and 2-year campaigns.”
Most profitable of all are campaigns that drive both volume and pricing… Their principle characteristic is that incremental volume is achieved whilst strengthening margin.”
No 3-month campaigns report major pricing effects.”
Volume effects are quick to achieve but pricing effects take much longer.”
The creation of memory, brands, and business growth takes time. And as such it is, like it or not, at odds with one of the defining characteristics of our age.
This is not to deny the value of brands being responsive in the here and now. Or the value of a brand demonstrating its currency, of surfing the ever-changing waves, fads and currents of popular culture. Or of providing short-term bursts of interest and fame.
Nor is this to suggest that there is no value in short-term activity. As Binet and Field comment:
The IPA data suggests that the optimum balance of brand and activation expenditure is on average around 60:40, though this may vary by category and is driven by how category expenditure divides (typically 60:40): the objective is to achieve equal share of voice within brand and activation.”
Direct campaigns [campaigns that use immediate behavioral triggers] work most efficiently over short time frames… They are essential for short-term sales efficiency. But direct campaigns are not efficient drivers of long-term growth (over 3+ years).”
That said, simply delivering short-term activity does not lead to success in the long term. As Binet and Field observe:
The way in which long-term effects are generated is fundamentally different from how most short-term effects are produced. Although long-term effects always produce some short-term effects, the reverse is not true and long-term effects are not simply an accumulation of short-term effects.”
So however much it may be the spirit (for better and for worse) of our times, we cannot allow our expectation of immediate delivery and satisfaction undermine our ability to deliver value.
Immediacy in adland
Yet symptoms of impatience are already to be found. We probably should not be surprised. After all only hermits, the psychopathic and the sociopathic are truly immune from the drift of culture.
Thus we see that the ability to deliver realtime marketing content can lead to the demand for realtime results.
The abundance of highly responsive communications metrics that digital interactions generate can lead to the assumption that success is to be found in the here and now.
The demand for immediate (job, decision and budget) justification can lead to short-term effects being passed of or taken to be the same as effectiveness (there is a difference).
The expectation of immediate change leads researchers and their methodologies to ignore the multiplying effects of time and repetition.
The demand for rapid career advancement leads to job tenures in the corporation that are too short to see real, meaningful business growth.
So where does this leave us?
Brand building does not move at the speed of culture
The metabolism of our culture continues to accelerate.
But – and the evidence is clear on this – the metabolism of sustainable growth has not.
So building successful brands will as it has always done, continue to take time.
In the preface to his book Present Shock, Douglas Rushkoff (who could hardly be called a Luddite) warns us that:
“Our society has reoriented itself to the present moment. Everything is live, real time, and always on. It’s not a a mere speeding up, however much our lifestyles and technologies have accelerated the rate at which we attempt to do things. It’s more of a diminishment of anything that isn’t happening right now – and the onslaught of everything that supposedly is.”
Ensuring that we do not fall victim to the diminishment of anything that isn’t happening right now it will demand of us a degree of fortitude. It will take a new degree of vigilance. It will require a determination not to give in to the expectation or demand of immediate delivery and satisfaction.
However much that may surround (and indeed delight us) us in our personal lives.
Les Binet and Peter Field, The Long And The Short Of It: Balancing Short- And Long-Term Marketing Strategies
S. Shunmuga Krishnan and Ramesh K. Sitaraman, ‘Video Stream Quality Impacts Viewer Behavior: Inferring Causality Using Quasi-Experimental Designs’
William Moran, ‘Brand Presence And The Perceptual Frame’, Journal of Advertising Research, October/November 1990
Douglas Rushkoff, Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now
Michael Stillwell, A Farewell To Alms: A Brief Economic History Of The World
John Tomlinson, The Culture Of Speed: The Coming Of Immediacy